Understanding the Forward Deployed Engineer (FDE) Model for AI Startups

English Podcast

中文版本

最近,Y Combinator 请来了 Bob McGrew ——前 OpenAI 首席研究官,同时也是 PayPal 和 Palantir 的资深技术骨干。令人意外的是,在场的创业者们并没有追问他“如何打造下一个 GPT”,反而一窝蜂地想知道:Palantir 的 FDE 模式究竟是怎么运作的?Bob 也坦言,过去一年里,他为无数创业公司提供过咨询,几乎所有人都在痴迷研究这种模式如何真正落地。

什么是 FDE?

FDE(Forward Deployed Engineer,前线部署工程师) 的核心理念,是把工程师直接派驻到客户一线,负责打通“理想产品”与“真实需求”之间的鸿沟。这一思路最早源于 Palantir 服务美国情报机构的岁月。那时客户的挑战极其复杂、没有任何现成模板,只能“现场拼凑”解决方案。起初,很多人认为这种模式无法规模化、太过劳动密集,不符合标准化的 SaaS 理念。可如今,正在探索 AI Agent 与企业级落地的创业公司们,却纷纷把它奉为圭臬。

它是如何运作的

Palantir 把 FDE 团队拆分为两类角色:

  • Echo:行业洞察者,深入客户工作流程,挖掘核心痛点,敢于质疑现状。
  • Delta:技术实干家,能够在现场快速迭代,把想法变成可运行的原型。

与此同时,总部的 核心产品团队 则把这些前线临时拼凑的“碎石路”经验,沉淀为真正的平台功能——就像把碎石铺成的便道逐步升级为可复用的高速公路。

为什么它重要

FDE 模式最大的优势,是能和客户建立极深的合作关系,发现那些任何调研或问卷都无法揭示的真实需求。执行得好,它能形成强大的护城河。但风险同样存在。如果缺乏纪律,FDE 很容易沦为传统咨询或外包。判断是否健康的关键在于:核心产品是否在持续进化?交付效率是否在不断提高?如果只是人海战术的项目交付,那就南辕北辙了。

与咨询的本质区别

关键差异在于:

  • 咨询 只解决一次性问题。
  • FDE 则要求把一线的经验和解决方案反馈到平台中,让产品每服务一个客户就更强大一分。

这种反馈闭环,以及产品经理把定制需求抽象为通用功能的能力,才是 FDE 的真正精髓。

为什么 AI 创业公司都在效仿

对 AI Agent 公司而言,市场过于碎片化和不确定,不存在“通吃型”产品。深度嵌入客户现场,不是可选项,而是唯一的探索路径。唯有如此,才能找到真正的产品形态和市场契合点。

商业模式的变化

传统 SaaS 依赖订阅规模化,而 FDE 合同更偏向结果导向与灵活定价。这里的关键杠杆是 产品杠杆:同样的前线投入,能否带来更大的合同规模,同时不断降低下一次定制的边际成本。

更大的图景

FDE 的流行揭示了现代科技公司的一个悖论:规模化的公司,往往要坚持做那些“无法规模化的事”。AI 的能力正在爆发,但距离真正落地仍有巨大鸿沟。而正是在这个鸿沟里,蕴藏着当下创业公司最大的机会。这不是一条轻松的道路,更像是长期的阵地战,而非一蹴而就的闪电战。但对创业者来说,它或许是唯一可行的道路。

【人工智能】什么是FDE?为何在硅谷爆火? | 前线部署工程师 | Bob McGrew | Palantir | 历史成因 | PMF | 总部产品平台 | Echo&Delta团队 | 历史倒退?


Recently, Y Combinator hosted Bob McGrew, the former Chief Research Officer at OpenAI and a veteran technologist from PayPal and Palantir. What surprised many was the line of questioning. Instead of asking him how to build the next GPT, founders kept pressing him on a very different topic: Palantir’s FDE model.

Bob admitted that over the past year, nearly every startup he’s advised has been obsessed with learning how this model works in practice.

What Exactly Is FDE?

FDE (Forward Deployed Engineer) is a model where engineers embed directly with customers to bridge the gap between what the product aspires to be and what the customer actually needs.

The idea traces back to Palantir’s early days working with U.S. intelligence agencies. The challenges were messy, complex, and had no off-the-shelf solutions. The only way forward was to “build on the ground” with the client. At the time, many dismissed it as unscalable, labor-intensive, and far from the clean SaaS ideal. Fast forward to today, and the very same approach is being embraced by AI startups building agents and enterprise solutions.

How It Works

Palantir structured its FDE teams around two roles:

  • Echo: the industry-savvy operator who lives inside the customer’s workflow, identifies core pain points, and challenges the status quo.
  • Delta: the technical builder who can spin up prototypes quickly, solving problems in real time.

Meanwhile, the core product team back at HQ takes these frontline hacks and turns them into platform features. Think of it as paving a permanent road where the FDEs first laid down gravel.

Why It Matters

The strength of the FDE model is that it forges unusually deep relationships with customers. It surfaces real market demand—things no survey or user interview could ever uncover. Done right, it creates a defensible moat.

But it’s also risky. Without discipline, FDE can collapse into traditional consulting or body-shop outsourcing. The litmus test of a healthy model is whether the core platform keeps evolving, making each new deployment faster, cheaper, and more scalable.

Different from Consulting

The distinction is critical:

  • Consulting delivers one-off solutions.
  • FDE is about feeding learnings back into the product, so the platform gets stronger with every customer.

This feedback loop—and the ability of product managers to abstract from bespoke requests—is what turns customer-specific fixes into reusable product capabilities.

Why AI Startups Love It

For AI Agent companies, the market is far too fragmented and unpredictable for a “one-size-fits-all” solution. No universal product exists. Embedding deeply with customers isn’t optional—it’s the only way to figure out what works, discover product-market fit, and build enduring platforms.

A Shift in Business Models

Unlike traditional SaaS, which scales on pure subscriptions, FDE contracts are more outcome-driven and flexible. The key lever is product leverage: doing the same amount of frontline work but translating it into larger contracts and less marginal customization over time.

The Bigger Picture

The rise of FDE highlights a paradox of modern tech: at scale, the best companies keep doing the things that “don’t scale.” The gulf between breakthrough AI capabilities and messy, real-world adoption is exactly where the biggest opportunities lie today.

It’s not an easy path—more trench warfare than blitzscaling—but for founders, it may be the only one that works.


Watch the full discussion here: The FDE Playbook for AI Startups with Bob McGrew

AI-Powered Search: Google’s Transformation vs. Perplexity

TL;DR, Play the podcast (Audio Overview generated by NotebookLM)

  1. Abstract
  2. Google’s AI Transformation: From PageRank to Gemini-Powered Search
    1. The Search Generative Experience (SGE) Revolution
    2. Google’s LLM Arsenal
    3. Technical Architecture Integration
    4. Key Differentiators of Google’s AI Search
  3. Perplexity AI Architecture: The RAG-Powered Search Revolution
    1. Simplified Architecture View
    2. How Perplexity Works: From Query to Answer
    3. Technical Workflow Diagram
  4. The New Search Paradigm: AI-First vs AI-Enhanced Approaches
    1. Google’s Philosophy: “AI-Enhanced Universal Search”
    2. Perplexity’s Philosophy: “AI-Native Conversational Search”
    3. Comprehensive Technology & Business Comparison
  5. The Future of AI-Powered Search: A New Competitive Landscape
    1. Implementation Strategy Battle: Integration vs. Innovation
    2. The Multi-Modal Future
    3. Business Model Evolution Under AI
    4. Technical Architecture Convergence
    5. The Browser and Distribution Channel Wars
  6. Strategic Implications and Future Outlook
    1. Key Strategic Insights
    2. The New Competitive Dynamics
    3. Looking Ahead: Industry Predictions
  7. Recommendations for Stakeholders
  8. Conclusion

Abstract

This blog examines the rapidly evolving landscape of AI-powered search, comparing Google’s recent transformation with its Search Generative Experience (SGE) and Gemini integration against Perplexity AI‘s native AI-first approach. Both companies now leverage large language models, but with fundamentally different architectures and philosophies.

The New Reality: Google has undergone a dramatic transformation from traditional keyword-based search to an AI-driven conversational answer engine. With the integration of Gemini, LaMDA, PaLM, and the rollout of AI Overviews (formerly SGE), Google now synthesizes information from multiple sources into concise, contextual answers—directly competing with Perplexity’s approach.

Key Findings:

  • Convergent Evolution: Both platforms now use LLMs for answer generation, but Google maintains its traditional search infrastructure while Perplexity was built AI-first from the ground up
  • Architecture Philosophy: Google integrates AI capabilities into its existing search ecosystem (hybrid approach), while Perplexity centers everything around RAG and multi-model orchestration (AI-native approach)
  • AI Technology Stack: Google leverages Gemini (multimodal), LaMDA (conversational), and PaLM models, while Perplexity orchestrates external models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek)
  • User Experience: Google provides AI Overviews alongside traditional search results, while Perplexity delivers answer-first experiences with citations
  • Market Dynamics: The competition has intensified with Google’s AI transformation, making the choice between platforms more about implementation philosophy than fundamental capabilities

This represents a paradigm shift where the question is no longer “traditional vs. AI search” but rather “how to best implement AI-powered search” with different approaches to integration, user experience, and business models.

Keywords: AI Search, RAG, Large Language Models, Search Architecture, Perplexity AI, Google Search, Conversational AI, SGE, Gemini.

Google has undergone one of the most significant transformations in its history, evolving from a traditional link-based search engine to an AI-powered answer engine. This transformation represents a strategic response to the rise of AI-first search platforms and changing user expectations.

The Search Generative Experience (SGE) Revolution

Google’s Search Generative Experience (SGE), now known as AI Overviews, fundamentally changes how search results are presented:

  • AI-Synthesized Answers: Instead of just providing links, Google’s AI generates comprehensive insights, explanations, and summaries from multiple sources
  • Contextual Understanding: Responses consider user context including location, search history, and preferences for personalized results
  • Multi-Step Query Handling: The system can handle complex, conversational queries that require reasoning and synthesis
  • Real-Time Information Grounding: AI overviews are grounded in current, real-time information while maintaining accuracy

Google’s LLM Arsenal

Google has strategically integrated multiple advanced AI models into its search infrastructure:

Gemini: The Multimodal Powerhouse
  • Capabilities: Understands and generates text, images, videos, and audio
  • Search Integration: Enables complex query handling including visual search, reasoning tasks, and detailed information synthesis
  • Multimodal Processing: Handles queries that combine text, images, and other media types
LaMDA: Conversational AI Foundation
  • Purpose: Powers natural, dialogue-like interactions in search
  • Features: Enables follow-up questions and conversational context maintenance
  • Integration: Supports Google’s shift toward conversational search experiences

PaLM: Large-Scale Language Understanding

  • Role: Provides advanced language processing capabilities
  • Applications: Powers complex reasoning, translation (100+ languages), and contextual understanding
  • Scale: Handles extended documents and multimodal inputs

Technical Architecture Integration

Google’s approach differs from AI-first platforms by layering AI capabilities onto existing infrastructure:

  • Hybrid Architecture: Maintains traditional search capabilities while adding AI-powered features
  • Scale Integration: Leverages existing massive infrastructure and data
  • DeepMind Synergy: Strategic integration of DeepMind research into commercial search applications
  • Continuous Learning: ML ranking algorithms and AI models learn from user interactions in real-time
  • Global Reach: AI features deployed across 100+ languages with localized understanding

Perplexity AI Architecture: The RAG-Powered Search Revolution

Perplexity AI represents a fundamental reimagining of search technology, built on three core innovations:

  1. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG): Combines real-time web crawling with large language model capabilities
  2. Multi-Model Orchestration: Leverages multiple AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek) for optimal responses
  3. Integrated Citation System: Provides transparent source attribution with every answer

The platform offers multiple access points to serve different user needs: Web Interface, Mobile App, Comet Browser, and Enterprise API.

Core Architecture Components

Simplified Architecture View

For executive presentations and high-level discussions, this three-layer view highlights the essential components:

How Perplexity Works: From Query to Answer

Understanding Perplexity’s workflow reveals why it delivers fundamentally different results than traditional search engines. Unlike Google’s approach of matching keywords to indexed pages, Perplexity follows a sophisticated multi-step process:

The Eight-Step Journey

  1. Query Reception: User submits a natural language question through any interface
  2. Real-Time Retrieval: Custom crawlers search the web for current, relevant information
  3. Source Indexing: Retrieved content is processed and indexed in real-time
  4. Context Assembly: RAG system compiles relevant information into coherent context
  5. Model Selection: AI orchestrator chooses the optimal model(s) for the specific query type
  6. Answer Generation: Selected model(s) generate comprehensive responses using retrieved context
  7. Citation Integration: System automatically adds proper source attribution
  8. Response Delivery: Final answer with citations is presented to the user

Technical Workflow Diagram

The sequence below shows how a user query flows through Perplexity’s system.

This process typically completes in under 3 seconds, delivering both speed and accuracy.

The New Search Paradigm: AI-First vs AI-Enhanced Approaches

The competition between Google and Perplexity has evolved beyond traditional vs. AI search to represent two distinct philosophies for implementing AI-powered search experiences.

  • Hybrid Integration: Layer advanced AI capabilities onto proven search infrastructure
  • Comprehensive Coverage: Maintain traditional search results alongside AI-generated overviews
  • Gradual Transformation: Evolve existing user behaviors rather than replace them entirely
  • Scale Advantage: Leverage massive existing data and infrastructure for AI training and deployment
  • Model Agnostic: Orchestrate best-in-class models rather than developing proprietary AI
  • Clean Slate Design: Built from the ground up with AI-first architecture
  • Answer-Centric: Focus entirely on direct answer generation with source attribution
  • Conversational Flow: Design for multi-turn, contextual conversations rather than single queries

Comprehensive Technology & Business Comparison

DimensionGoogle AI-Enhanced SearchPerplexity AI-Native Search
InputNatural language + traditional keywordsPure natural language, conversational
AI ModelsGemini, LaMDA, PaLM (proprietary)GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek (orchestrated)
ArchitectureHybrid (AI + traditional infrastructure)Pure AI-first (RAG-centered)
RetrievalEnhanced index + Knowledge Graph + real-timeCustom crawler + real-time retrieval
Core TechAI Overviews + traditional rankingRAG + multi-model orchestration
OutputHybrid (AI Overview + links + ads)Direct answers with citations
ContextLimited conversational memoryFull multi-turn conversation memory
ExtensionsMaps, News, Shopping, Ads integrationDocument search, e-commerce, APIs
BusinessAd-driven + AI premium featuresSubscription + API + e-commerce
UX“AI answers + traditional options”“Conversational AI assistant”
ProductsGoogle Search with SGE/AI OverviewPerplexity Web/App, Comet Browser
DeploymentGlobal rollout with localizationGlobal expansion, English-focused
Data AdvantageMassive proprietary data + real-timeReal-time web data + model diversity
ProductsGoogle Search, AdsPerplexity Web/App, Comet Browser

The Future of AI-Powered Search: A New Competitive Landscape

The integration of AI into search has fundamentally changed the competitive landscape. Rather than a battle between traditional and AI search, we now see different approaches to implementing AI-powered experiences competing for user mindshare and market position.

Implementation Strategy Battle: Integration vs. Innovation

Google’s Integration Strategy:

  • Advantage: Massive user base and infrastructure to deploy AI features at scale
  • Challenge: Balancing AI innovation with existing business model dependencies
  • Approach: Gradual rollout of AI features while maintaining traditional search options

Perplexity’s Innovation Strategy:

  • Advantage: Clean slate design optimized for AI-first experiences
  • Challenge: Building user base and competing with established platforms
  • Approach: Focus on superior AI experience to drive user acquisition

The Multi-Modal Future

Both platforms are moving toward comprehensive multi-modal experiences:

  • Visual Search Integration: Google Lens vs. Perplexity’s image understanding capabilities
  • Voice-First Interactions: Google Assistant integration vs. conversational AI interfaces
  • Video and Audio Processing: Gemini’s multimodal capabilities vs. orchestrated model approaches
  • Document Intelligence: Enterprise document search and analysis capabilities

Business Model Evolution Under AI

Advertising Model Transformation:

  • Google must adapt its ad-centric model to AI Overviews without disrupting user experience
  • Challenge of monetizing direct answers vs. traditional click-through advertising
  • Need for new ad formats that work with conversational AI

Subscription and API Models:

  • Perplexity’s success with subscription tiers validates alternative monetization
  • Growing enterprise demand for AI-powered search APIs and integrations
  • Premium features becoming differentiators (document search, advanced models, higher usage limits)

Technical Architecture Convergence

Despite different starting points, both platforms are converging on similar technical capabilities:

  • Real-Time Information: Both now emphasize current, up-to-date information retrieval
  • Source Attribution: Transparency and citation becoming standard expectations
  • Conversational Context: Multi-turn conversation support across platforms
  • Model Diversity: Google developing multiple specialized models, Perplexity orchestrating external models

The Browser and Distribution Channel Wars

Perplexity’s Chrome Acquisition Strategy:

  • $34.5B all-cash bid for Chrome represents unprecedented ambition in AI search competition
  • Strategic Value: Control over browser defaults, user data, and search distribution
  • Market Impact: Success would fundamentally alter competitive dynamics and user acquisition costs
  • Regulatory Reality: Bid likely serves as strategic positioning and leverage rather than realistic acquisition

Alternative Distribution Strategies:

  • AI-native browsers (Comet) as specialized entry points
  • API integrations into enterprise and developer workflows
  • Mobile-first experiences capturing younger user demographics

Strategic Implications and Future Outlook

The competition between Google’s AI-enhanced approach and Perplexity’s AI-native strategy represents a fascinating case study in how established platforms and startups approach technological transformation differently.

Key Strategic Insights

  • The AI Integration Challenge: Google’s transformation demonstrates that even dominant platforms must fundamentally reimagine their core products to stay competitive in the AI era
  • Architecture Philosophy Matters: The choice between hybrid integration (Google) vs. AI-first design (Perplexity) creates different strengths, limitations, and user experiences
  • Business Model Pressure: AI-powered search challenges traditional advertising models, forcing experimentation with subscriptions, APIs, and premium features
  • User Behavior Evolution: Both platforms are driving the shift from “search and browse” to “ask and receive” interactions, fundamentally changing how users access information

The New Competitive Dynamics

Advantages of Google’s AI-Enhanced Approach:

  • Massive scale and infrastructure for global AI deployment
  • Existing user base to gradually transition to AI features
  • Deep integration with knowledge graphs and proprietary data
  • Ability to maintain traditional search alongside AI innovations

Advantages of Perplexity’s AI-Native Approach:

  • Optimized user experience designed specifically for conversational AI
  • Agility to implement cutting-edge AI techniques without legacy constraints
  • Model-agnostic architecture leveraging best-in-class external AI models
  • Clear value proposition for users seeking direct, cited answers

Looking Ahead: Industry Predictions

Near-Term (1-2 years):

  • Continued convergence of features between platforms
  • Google’s global rollout of AI Overviews across all markets and languages
  • Perplexity’s expansion into enterprise and specialized vertical markets
  • Emergence of more AI-native search platforms following Perplexity’s model

Medium-Term (3-5 years):

  • AI-powered search becomes the standard expectation across all platforms
  • Specialized AI search tools for professional domains (legal, medical, scientific research)
  • Integration of real-time multimodal capabilities (live video analysis, augmented reality search)
  • New regulatory frameworks for AI-powered information systems

Long-Term (5+ years):

  • Fully conversational AI assistants replace traditional search interfaces
  • Personal AI agents that understand individual context and preferences
  • Integration with IoT and ambient computing for seamless information access
  • Potential emergence of decentralized, blockchain-based search alternatives

Recommendations for Stakeholders

For Technology Leaders:

  • Hybrid Strategy: Consider Google’s approach of enhancing existing systems with AI rather than complete rebuilds
  • Model Orchestration: Investigate Perplexity’s approach of orchestrating multiple AI models for optimal results
  • Real-Time Capabilities: Invest in real-time information retrieval and processing systems
  • Citation Systems: Implement transparent source attribution to build user trust

For Business Strategists:

  • Revenue Model Innovation: Experiment with subscription, API, and premium feature models beyond traditional advertising
  • User Experience Focus: Prioritize conversational, answer-first experiences in product development
  • Distribution Strategy: Evaluate the importance of browser control and default search positions
  • Competitive Positioning: Decide between AI-enhancement of existing products vs. AI-native alternatives

For Investors:

  • Platform Risk Assessment: Evaluate how established platforms are adapting to AI disruption
  • Technology Differentiation: Assess the sustainability of competitive advantages in rapidly evolving AI landscape
  • Business Model Viability: Monitor the success of alternative monetization strategies beyond advertising
  • Regulatory Impact: Consider potential regulatory responses to AI-powered information systems and search market concentration

The future of search will be determined by execution quality, user adoption, and the ability to balance innovation with practical business considerations. Both Google and Perplexity have established viable but different paths forward, setting the stage for continued innovation and competition in the AI-powered search landscape.

  • Monitor the browser control battle and distribution channel acquisitions
  • Technology Differentiation: Assess the sustainability of competitive advantages in rapidly evolving AI landscape
  • Business Model Viability: Monitor the success of alternative monetization strategies beyond advertising
  • Regulatory Impact: Consider potential regulatory responses to AI-powered information systems and search market concentration

Conclusion

The evolution of search from Google’s traditional PageRank-driven approach to today’s AI-powered landscape represents one of the most significant technological shifts in internet history. Google’s recent transformation with its Search Generative Experience and Gemini integration demonstrates that even the most successful platforms must reinvent themselves to remain competitive in the AI era.

The competition between Google’s AI-enhanced strategy and Perplexity’s AI-native approach offers valuable insights into different paths for implementing AI at scale. Google’s hybrid approach leverages massive existing infrastructure while gradually transforming user experiences, while Perplexity’s clean-slate design optimizes entirely for conversational AI interactions.

As both platforms continue to evolve, the ultimate winners will be users who gain access to more intelligent, efficient, and helpful ways to access information. The future of search will likely feature elements of both approaches: the scale and comprehensiveness of Google’s enhanced platform combined with the conversational fluency and transparency of AI-native solutions.

The battle for search supremacy in the AI era has only just begun, and the innovations emerging from this competition will shape how humanity accesses and interacts with information for decades to come.


This analysis reflects the state of AI-powered search as of August 2025. The rapidly evolving nature of AI technology and competitive dynamics may significantly impact future developments. Both Google and Perplexity continue to innovate at unprecedented pace, making ongoing monitoring essential for stakeholders in this space. This analysis represents the current state of AI-powered search as of August 2025. The rapidly evolving nature of AI technology and competitive landscape may impact future developments.

《大模型精诚》两篇

世有愚者,读方三年,便谓天下无病可治;及治病三年,乃知天下无方可用。

— 【唐】孙思邈《大医精诚》

《大模型精诚(上)》仿照孙思邈的《大医精诚》而作,论述了术之源和道之始。《大模型精诚(下)》继承了上篇的旨趣,进一步阐明了工具的用途;批判了浮夸学术的弊端,强调了明人志向的正直;愿后来的学者能够谨慎守护精诚之道。

  1. 《大模型精诚·上:御术循道》
  2. 《大模型精诚·下:格物穷理》
  3. 《大医精诚》原文
中文摘要 & English Abstract

《大模型精诚》分为上下两篇,仿孙思邈《大医精诚》之文风,提出面对大语言模型(LLMs)之道,须持“精勤”“诚敬”之精神。文章指出,大模型非万能,初学者易为其智能所惑,唯有深入算法原理、洞察数据源头,方能破“表象之惑”,守“正道之用”。技术本无心,人心为舵,若妄施滥用,或将致祸;唯秉“精诚之志”,以智辅仁,方可济世安人。

“On the Sincerity and Mastery in Large Models” is a two-part essay inspired by Sun Simiao’s classical Chinese text On the Absolute Sincerity of Great Physicians. Written in classical Chinese style, it warns against superficial understanding and blind faith in large language models (LLMs). It calls for practitioners to uphold a spirit of diligence (“精”) and sincerity (“诚”)—to understand the inner principles of algorithms and the biases within data. The model is but a tool; its moral compass lies in the human operator. Only by combining technical rigor with ethical restraint can AI serve humanity and avoid causing harm. This is both a philosophical treatise on AI and a critique of today’s hasty tech culture.

《大模型精诚·上:御术循道》

昔者圣贤格物致知,究天人之际,通古今之变,成一家之言。今夫人工智能之兴,盖亦格物之一端也。自其出也,声誉日隆,众人或惊其智,或惧其势,而不知其理者众矣。或操之以利,或役之为器,然利器在手,而不察其锋芒,未必不自伤也。是故观其用者多,究其道者寡。

世有愚者,览模型三月,便谓天下无难可为;及历参数之调三载,方知世无定式可循。故智者必穷其理,探其源,精勤不倦,不得道听途说,或一知半解,便言大道已了,深自误哉!夫模型者,数据瀚海之所凝,千万参数之所成。 初也,对答如流,人以为智;久则偏识横生,虚妄自出。是以不明其本,只见其文,则如沙上筑塔,虽高而易倾;水中捞月,虽美而终空。

夫术者,行之器也;道者,心之正也。有道无术,术尚可求;有术无道,止于术。是故为学者,当怀精诚之心,以格物致知。不为文饰所惑,不为便捷所役。上穷算理之幽,下辨数据之源。善用其利,以济百工;慎防其弊,以安天下。惟敬惟谨,方能行稳致远;术必精诚,方可臻于大成。

噫!大道之行,贵在明理,重在行之。浮华易得,实知难求。若以华辞饰伪,虽一时风光,终非正道;惟有以道御术,以术辅仁,方能不为其所役,而反致其功。愿世之为学者,慎始慎终,毋躁毋惰;内求于诚,外谨于行,不仅以问答取巧,更以格物证理。则大模型之道,不特能济世用事,亦可以砥砺心志,通于大道矣!


《大模型精诚·下:格物穷理》

夫大模型者,非徒技艺之巧,实启万象之门,应世变之机也。机巧肇兴,数十年耕耘,方结斯器,蔚然成势。其志在洞察智能之源,其义在贯通语言之理。通天人,综古今,非术末之流,乃文明之维。治世之助,经纬之翼。然世多趋利者,见术而不求道;窥皮而不识骨。操几行机命,即称智械之师;观几番演示,便誉人类之镜。或视生成若巫术,妄言灵机觉醒,惑众而自昏,笑之可也。

昔圣贤格物致知,寒暑不辍,穷理尽性,尚不敢言道成;今浮学遇器之妙,应一问而百答,便谓智能已极,人力可替,岂不谬哉?夫言虽似人,意非其本;识未通理,情不存诚。模型者,镜也,影也,非圣贤之心也。其构也,采万卷之籍,汇千年之言,亿万试炼,始见一用。然中有偏识之患、虚妄之误、理断之病、语悖之失,不可不察。不明其理,妄施其用,是犹未诊而投毒,害人而不自知也。

故为学者,当守精诚。不为华饰所眩,不为捷径所诱。内怀谨惧之心,外行谨严之道。器不妄用,人不失本。若夫施用之道,尤宜慎审。毋以小试之验,妄推大用之功;毋因偶中之答,遽信全才之能。逢伦理之辩,涉利害之争,当辨是非之界,守正直之心。不可托器以避己责,盖模型无心,惟人有心。算巧犹器,操之在人;人失其正,器失其依,虽有神器,亦可为祸。是故大者不在术之精,而在人之诚与敬也。

噫!世风浮躁,器成于速,工毁于轻。市井谈智者,多竞捷而寡思;创企逐利者,多耀术而失本。若不慎其患,不固其本,大器之用,虽广亦危。惟精勤而博识,惟谨慎而明理;守德以立身,循道以济世。方可保其善用,免其深害。夫技艺者,舟也;德义者,舵也。舟疾无舵,必倾覆于风波。若能以人为本,以智辅仁,引势以用,慎力以行,使模型不妄言,使人心常自省。则虽新器日出,世亦不乱;虽智能骤起,人亦不亡。


《大医精诚》原文

中国【唐】孙思邈(581~682年)所著之《备急千金要方》第一卷,乃是中医学典籍中,论述医德的一篇极重要文献,为习医者所必读。

张湛曰:“夫经方之难精,由来尚矣。今病有内同而外异,亦有内异而外同,故五脏六腑之盈虚,血脉荣卫之通塞,固非耳目之所察,必先诊候以审之。而寸口关尺,有浮沉弦紧之乱;俞穴流注,有高下浅深之差;肌肤筋骨,有厚薄刚柔之异。唯用心精微者,始可与言于兹矣。今以至精至微之事,求之于至粗至浅之思,岂不殆哉!若盈而益之,虚而损之,通而彻之,塞而壅之,寒而冷之,热而温之,是重加其疾,而望其生,吾见其死矣。故医方卜筮,艺能之难精者也。既非神授,何以得其幽微?世有愚者,读方三年,便谓天下无病可治;及治病三年,乃知天下无方可用。故学者必须博极医源,精勤不倦,不得道听途说,而言医道已了,深自误哉!

凡大医治病,必当安神定志,无欲无求,先发大慈恻隐之心,誓愿普救含灵之苦。若有疾厄来求救者,不得问其贵贱贫富,长幼妍蚩,怨亲善友,华夷愚智,普同一等,皆如至亲之想。亦不得瞻前顾后,自虑吉凶,护惜身命,见彼苦恼,若己有之,深心凄怆,勿避险巇,昼夜寒暑,饥渴疲劳,一心赴救,无作工夫行迹之心,如此可做苍生大医,反之则是含灵巨贼。自古明贤治病,多用生命以济危急,虽曰贱畜贵人,至于爱命,人畜一也。损彼益己,物情同患,况于人乎?夫杀生求生,去生更远,吾今此方所以不用生命为药者,良由此也。其虻虫水蛭之属,市有先死者,则市而用之,不在此例。只如鸡卵一物,以其混沌未分,必有大段要急之处,不得已隐忍而用之,能不用者,斯为大哲,亦所不及也。其有患疮痍下痢,臭秽不可瞻视,人所恶见者,但发惭愧、凄怜、忧恤之意,不得起一念蒂芥之心,是吾之志也。

夫大医之体,欲得澄神内视,望之俨然,宽裕汪汪,不皎不昧,省病诊疾,至意深心,详察形候,纤毫勿失,处判针药,无得参差,虽曰病宜速救,要须临事不惑,唯当审谛覃思,不得于性命之上,率而自逞俊快,邀射名誉,甚不仁矣。又到病家,纵绮罗满目,勿左右顾盼;丝竹凑耳,无得似有所娱;珍羞迭荐,食如无味;醽醁兼陈,看有若无。所以尔者,夫一人向隅,满堂不乐,而况病人苦楚,不离斯须,而医者安然欢娱,傲然自得,兹乃人神之所共耻,至人之所不为,斯盖医之本意也。

夫为医之法,不得多语调笑,谈谑喧哗,道说是非,议论人物,炫耀声名,訾毁诸医,自矜己德,偶然治瘥一病,则昂头戴面,而有自许之貌,谓天下无双,此医人之膏肓也。老君曰:人行阳德,人自报之;人行阴德,鬼神报之;人行阳恶,人自报之,人行阴恶,鬼神害之。寻此贰途,阴阳报施,岂诬也哉?

所以医人不得恃己所长,专心经略财物,但作救苦之心,于冥运道中,自感多福者耳。又不得以彼富贵,处以珍贵之药,令彼难求,自眩功能,谅非忠恕之道。志存救济,故亦曲碎论之,学者不可耻言之鄙俚也!”


END

Zuckerberg’s Gamble: Risks and Rewards in AI Talent Acquisition


Mark Zuckerberg’s recent move to bring Alex Wang and his team into Meta represents a bold and strategic maneuver amid the rapid advancement of large models and AGI development. Putting aside the ethical considerations, Zuckerberg’s approach—laying off staff, then offering sky-high compensation packages with a 48-hour ultimatum to Top AI scientists and engineers from OpenAI , alongside Meta’s acquisition of a 49% stake in Scale AI—appears to serve multiple objectives:

1. Undermining Competitors

By poaching key talent from rival companies, Meta not only weakens their R&D teams and disrupts their momentum but also puts pressure on Google, OpenAI, and others to reassess their partnerships with Scale AI. Meta’s investment may further marginalize these competitors by injecting uncertainty into their collaboration with Scale AI.

2. Reinvigorating the Internal Team

Bringing in fresh blood like Alex Wang’s team and Open AI Top talents could reenergize Meta’s existing research units. A successful “talent reset” may help the company gain a competitive edge in the race toward AGI.

3. Enhancing Brand Visibility

Even if the move doesn’t yield immediate results, it has already amplified Meta’s media presence, boosting its reputation as a leader in AI innovation.

From both a talent acquisition and PR standpoint, this appears to be a masterstroke for Meta.


However, the strategy is not without significant risks:

1. Internal Integration and Morale Challenges

The massive compensation packages offered to those talents could trigger resentment among existing employees—especially in the wake of recent layoffs—due to perceived pay inequity. This may lower morale and even accelerate internal attrition. Cultural differences between the incoming and incumbent teams could further complicate internal integration and collaboration.

2. Return on Investment and Performance Pressure

Meta’s substantial investment in Alex Wang and Scale AI comes with high expectations for short-term deliverables. In a domain as uncertain as AGI, both the market and shareholders will be eager for breakthroughs. If Wang’s team fails to deliver measurable progress quickly, Meta could face mounting scrutiny and uncertainty over the ROI.

3. Impacts on Scale AI and the Broader Ecosystem

Alex Wang stepping away as CEO is undoubtedly a major loss for Scale AI, even if he retains a board seat. Leadership transitions and potential talent departures may follow. Moreover, Scale AI’s history of legal and compliance issues could reflect poorly on Meta’s brand—especially if public perception ties Meta to those concerns despite holding only non-voting shares. More broadly, Meta’s aggressive “poaching” approach may escalate the AI talent war, drive up industry-wide costs, and prompt renewed debate over ethics and hiring norms in the AI sector.


Conclusion
Meta’s latest move is undeniably ambitious. While it positions the company aggressively in the AGI race, it also carries notable risks in terms of internal dynamics, ROI pressure, and broader ecosystem disruption. Only time will tell whether this bold gamble pays off.

Our Future with AI: Three Strategies to Ensure It Stays on Our Side

As Artificial Intelligence rapidly evolves, ensuring it remains a beneficial tool rather than a source of unforeseen challenges is paramount; this article explores three critical strategies to keep AI firmly on our side. Our AI researchers can draw lessons from cybersecurity, robotics, and astrobiology side. Source: IEEE Spectrum April 2025; 3 Ways to Keep AI on Our Side: AI Researchers can Draw Lessons from Cybersecurity, Robotics, and Astrobiology

Play the podcast

中文翻译摘要

这篇文章提出了确保人工智能安全和有益发展的三个独特且跨学科的策略。

应对人工智能的独特错误模式:布鲁斯·施奈尔(Bruce Schneier)和内森·E·桑德斯(Nathan E. Sanders)(网络安全视角)指出,人工智能系统,特别是大型语言模型(LLMs),其错误模式与人类错误显著不同——它们更难预测,不集中在知识空白处,且缺乏对自身错误的自我意识。他们提出双重研究方向:一是工程化人工智能以产生更易于人类理解的错误(例如,通过RLHF等精炼的对齐技术);二是开发专门针对人工智能独特“怪异”之处的新型安全与纠错系统(例如,迭代且多样化的提示)。

更新伦理框架以打击人工智能欺骗:达里乌什·杰米尔尼亚克(Dariusz Jemielniak)(机器人与互联网文化视角)认为,鉴于人工智能驱动的欺骗行为(包括深度伪造、复杂的错误信息宣传和操纵性人工智能互动)日益增多,艾萨克·阿西莫夫(Isaac Asimov)传统的机器人三定律已不足以应对现代人工智能。他提出一条“机器人第四定律”:机器人或人工智能不得通过冒充人类来欺骗人类。实施这项法律将需要强制性的人工智能披露、清晰标注人工智能生成内容、技术识别标准、法律执行以及公众人工智能素养倡议,以维护人机协作中的信任。

建立通用人工智能(AGI)检测与互动的严格协议:埃德蒙·贝戈利(Edmon Begoli)和阿米尔·萨多夫尼克(Amir Sadovnik)(天体生物学/SETI视角)建议,通用人工智能(AGI)的研究可以借鉴搜寻地外文明(SETI)的方法论。他们主张对AGI采取结构化的科学方法,包括:制定清晰、多学科的“通用智能”及相关概念(如意识)定义;创建超越图灵测试局限性的鲁棒、新颖的AGI检测指标和评估基准;以及制定国际公认的检测后协议,以便在AGI出现时进行验证、确保透明度、安全性和伦理考量。

总而言之,这些观点强调了迫切需要创新、多方面的方法——涵盖安全工程、伦理准则修订以及严格的科学协议制定——以主动管理先进人工智能系统的社会融入和潜在未来轨迹。


Abstract: this article presents three distinct, cross-disciplinary strategies for ensuring the safe and beneficial development of Artificial Intelligence.

Addressing Idiosyncratic AI Error Patterns (Cybersecurity Perspective): Bruce Schneier and Nathan E. Sanders highlight that AI systems, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), exhibit error patterns significantly different from human mistakes—being less predictable, not clustered around knowledge gaps, and lacking self-awareness of error. They propose a dual research thrust: engineering AIs to produce more human-intelligible errors (e.g., through refined alignment techniques like RLHF) and developing novel security and mistake-correction systems specifically designed for AI’s unique “weirdness” (e.g., iterative, varied prompting).

Updating Ethical Frameworks to Combat AI Deception (Robotics & Internet Culture Perspective): Dariusz Jemielniak argues that Isaac Asimov’s traditional Three Laws of Robotics are insufficient for modern AI due to the rise of AI-enabled deception, including deepfakes, sophisticated misinformation campaigns, and manipulative AI interactions. He proposes a “Fourth Law of Robotics”: A robot or AI must not deceive a human being by impersonating a human being. Implementing this law would necessitate mandatory AI disclosure, clear labeling of AI-generated content, technical identification standards, legal enforcement, and public AI literacy initiatives to maintain trust in human-AI collaboration.

Establishing Rigorous Protocols for AGI Detection and Interaction (Astrobiology/SETI Perspective): Edmon Begoli and Amir Sadovnik suggest that research into Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) can draw methodological lessons from the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). They advocate for a structured scientific approach to AGI that includes:

  • Developing clear, multidisciplinary definitions of “general intelligence” and related concepts like consciousness.
  • Creating robust, novel metrics and evaluation benchmarks for detecting AGI, moving beyond limitations of tests like the Turing Test.
  • Formulating internationally recognized post-detection protocols for validation, transparency, safety, and ethical considerations, should AGI emerge.

Collectively, these perspectives emphasize the urgent need for innovative, multi-faceted approaches—spanning security engineering, ethical guideline revision, and rigorous scientific protocol development—to proactively manage the societal integration and potential future trajectory of advanced AI systems.


Here are the full detailed content:

3 Ways to Keep AI on Our Side

AS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE reshapes society, our traditional safety nets and ethical frameworks are being put to the test. How can we make sure that AI remains a force for good? Here we bring you three fresh visions for safer AI.

  • In the first essay, security expert Bruce Schneier and data scientist Nathan E. Sanders explore how AI’s “weird” error patterns create a need for innovative security measures that go beyond methods honed on human mistakes.
  • Dariusz Jemielniak, an authority on Internet culture and technology, argues that the classic robot ethics embodied in Isaac Asimov’s famous rules of robotics need an update to counterbalance AI deception and a world of deepfakes.
  • And in the final essay, the AI researchers Edmon Begoli and Amir Sadovnik suggest taking a page from the search for intelligent life in the stars; they propose rigorous standards for detecting the possible emergence of human-level AI intelligence.

As AI advances with breakneck speed, these cross-disciplinary strategies may help us keep our hands on the reins.


AI Mistakes Are Very Different from Human Mistakes

WE NEED NEW SECURITY SYSTEMS DESIGNED TO DEAL WITH THEIR WEIRDNESS

Bruce Schneier & Nathan E. Sanders

HUMANS MAKE MISTAKES all the time. All of us do, every day, in tasks both new and routine. Some of our mistakes are minor, and some are catastrophic. Mistakes can break trust with our friends, lose the confidence of our bosses, and sometimes be the difference between life and death.

Over the millennia, we have created security systems to deal with the sorts of mistakes humans commonly make. These days, casinos rotate their dealers regularly, because they make mistakes if they do the same task for too long. Hospital personnel write on patients’ limbs before surgery so that doctors operate on the correct body part, and they count surgical instruments to make sure none are left inside the body. From copyediting to double-entry bookkeeping to appellate courts, we humans have gotten really good at preventing and correcting human mistakes.

Humanity is now rapidly integrating a wholly different kind of mistakemaker into society: AI. Technologies like large language models (LLMs) can perform many cognitive tasks traditionally fulfilled by humans, but they make plenty of mistakes. You may have heard about chatbots telling people to eat rocks or add glue to pizza. What differentiates AI systems’ mistakes from human mistakes is their weirdness. That is, AI systems do not make mistakes in the same ways that humans do.

Much of the risk associated with our use of AI arises from that difference. We need to invent new security systems that adapt to these differences and prevent harm from AI mistakes.

IT’S FAIRLY EASY to guess when and where humans will make mistakes. Human errors tend to come at the edges of someone’s knowledge: Most of us would make mistakes solving calculus problems. We expect human mistakes to be clustered: A single calculus mistake is likely to be accompanied by others. We expect mistakes to wax and wane depending on factors such as fatigue and distraction. And mistakes are typically accompanied by ignorance: Someone who makes calculus mistakes is also likely to respond “I don’t know” to calculus-related questions.

To the extent that AI systems make these humanlike mistakes, we can bring all of our mistake-correcting systems to bear on their output. But the current crop of AI models—particularly LLMs—make mistakes differently.

AI errors come at seemingly random times, without any clustering around particular topics. The mistakes tend to be more evenly distributed through the knowledge space; an LLM might be equally likely to make a mistake on a calculus question as it is to propose that cabbages eat goats. And AI mistakes aren’t accompanied by ignorance. An LLM will be just as confident when saying something completely and obviously wrong as it will be when saying something true.

The inconsistency of LLMs makes it hard to trust their reasoning in complex, multistep problems. If you want to use an AI model to help with a business problem, it’s not enough to check that it understands what factors make a product profitable; you need to be sure it won’t forget what money is.

THIS SITUATION INDICATES two possible areas of research: engineering LLMs to make mistakes that are more humanlike, and building new mistake-correcting systems that deal with the specific sorts of mistakes that LLMs tend to make.

We already have some tools to lead LLMs to act more like humans. Many of these arise from the field of “alignment” research, which aims to make models act in accordance with the goals of their human developers. One example is the technique that was arguably responsible for the breakthrough success of ChatGPT: reinforcement learning with human feedback. In this method, an AI model is rewarded for producing responses that get a thumbs-up from human evaluators. Similar approaches could be used to induce AI systems to make humanlike mistakes, particularly by penalizing them more for mistakes that are less intelligible.

When it comes to catching AI mistakes, some of the systems that we use to prevent human mistakes will help. To an extent, forcing LLMs to double-check their own work can help prevent errors. But LLMs can also confabulate seemingly plausible yet truly ridiculous explanations for their flights from reason.

Other mistake-mitigation systems for AI are unlike anything we use for humans. Because machines can’t get fatigued or frustrated, it can help to ask an LLM the same question repeatedly in slightly different ways and then synthesize its responses. Humans won’t put up with that kind of annoying repetition, but machines will.

RESEARCHERS ARE still struggling to understand where LLM mistakes diverge from human ones. Some of the weirdness of AI is actually more humanlike than it first appears.

Small changes to a query to an LLM can result in wildly different responses, a problem known as prompt sensitivity. But, as any survey researcher can tell you, humans behave this way, too. The phrasing of a question in an opinion poll can have drastic impacts on the answers.

LLMs also seem to have a bias toward repeating the words that were most common in their training data—for example, guessing familiar place names like “America” even when asked about more exotic locations. Perhaps this is an example of the human “availability heuristic” manifesting in LLMs; like humans, the machines spit out the first thing that comes to mind rather than reasoning through the question. Also like humans, perhaps, some LLMs seem to get distracted in the middle of long documents; they remember more facts from the beginning and end.

In some cases, what’s bizarre about LLMs is that they act more like humans than we think they should. Some researchers have tested the hypothesis that LLMs perform better when offered a cash reward or threatened with death. It also turns out that some of the best ways to “jailbreak” LLMs (getting them to disobey their creators’ explicit instructions) look a lot like the kinds of social-engineering tricks that humans use on each otherfor example, pretending to be someone else or saying that the request is just a joke. But other effective jailbreaking techniques are things no human would ever fall for. One group found that if they used ASCII art (constructions of symbols that look like words or pictures) to pose dangerous questions, like how to build a bomb, the LLM would answer them willingly.

Humans may occasionally make seemingly random, incomprehensible, and inconsistent mistakes, but such occurrences are rare and often indicative of more serious problems. We also tend not to put people exhibiting these behaviors in decision-making positions. Likewise, we should confine AI decision-making systems to applications that suit their actual abilities—while keeping the potential ramifications of their mistakes firmly in mind.


Asimov’s Laws of Robotics Need an Update for AI PROPOSING A FOURTH LAW OF ROBOTICS

Dariusz Jemielniak

IN 1942, the legendary science fiction author Isaac Asimov introduced his Three Laws of Robotics in his short story “Runaround.” The laws were later popularized in his seminal story collection I, Robot.

  1. FIRST LAW: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. SECOND LAW: A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. THIRD LAW: A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

While drawn from works of fiction, these laws have shaped discussions of robot ethics for decades. And as AI systems—which can be considered virtual robots—have become more sophisticated and pervasive, some technologists have found Asimov’s framework useful for considering the potential safeguards needed for AI that interacts with humans.

But the existing three laws are not enough. Today, we are entering an era of unprecedented human-AI collaboration that Asimov could hardly have envisioned. The rapid advancement of generative AI, particularly in language and image generation, has created challenges beyond Asimov’s original concerns about physical harm and obedience.

THE PROLIFERATION of AI-enabled deception is particularly concerning. According to the FBI’s most recent Internet Crime Report, cybercrime involving digital manipulation and social engineering results in annual losses counted in the billions. The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity’s ENISA Threat Landscape 2023 highlighted deepfakes—synthetic media that appear genuine—as an emerging threat to digital identity and trust.

Social-media misinformation is a huge problem today. I studied it during the pandemic extensively and can say that the proliferation of generative AI tools has made its detection increasingly difficult. AI-generated propaganda is often just as persuasive as or even more persuasive than traditional propaganda, and bad actors can very easily use AI to create convincing content. Deepfakes are on the rise everywhere. Botnets can use AI-generated text, speech, and video to create false perceptions of widespread support for any political issue. Bots are now capable of making phone calls while impersonating people, and AI scam calls imitating familiar voices are increasingly common. Any day now, we can expect a boom in video-call scams based on AI-rendered overlay avatars, allowing scammers to impersonate loved ones and target the most vulnerable populations.

Even more alarmingly, children and teenagers are forming emotional attachments to AI agents, and are sometimes unable to distinguish between interactions with real friends and bots online. Already, there have been suicides attributed to interactions with AI chatbots.

In his 2019 book Human Compatible (Viking), the eminent computer scientist Stuart Russell argues that AI systems’ ability to deceive humans represents a fundamental challenge to social trust. This concern is reflected in recent policy initiatives, most notably the European Union’s AI Act, which includes provisions requiring transparency in AI interactions and transparent disclosure of AI-generated content. In Asimov’s time, people couldn’t have imagined the countless ways in which artificial agents could use online communication tools and avatars to deceive humans.

Therefore, we must make an addition to Asimov’s laws.

FOURTH LAW: A robot or AI must not deceive a human being by impersonating a human being.

WE NEED CLEAR BOUNDARIES. While human-AI collaboration can be constructive, AI deception undermines trust and leads to wasted time, emotional distress, and misuse of resources. Artificial agents must identify themselves to ensure our interactions with them are transparent and productive. AI-generated content should be clearly marked unless it has been significantly edited and adapted by a human.

Implementation of this Fourth Law would require

  • mandatory AI disclosure in direct interactions,
  • clear labeling of AI-generated content,
  • technical standards for AI identification,
  • legal frameworks for enforcement, and
  • educational initiatives to improve AI literacy.

Of course, all this is easier said than done. Enormous research efforts are already underway to find reliable ways to watermark or detect AI-generated text, audio, images, and videos. But creating the transparency I’m calling for is far from a solved problem.

The future of human-AI collaboration depends on maintaining clear distinctions between human and artificial agents. As noted in the IEEE report Ethically Aligned Design, transparency in AI systems is fundamental to building public trust and ensuring the responsible development of artificial intelligence.

Asimov’s complex stories showed that even robots that tried to follow the rules often discovered there were unintended consequences to their actions. Still, having AI systems that are at least trying to follow Asimov’s ethical guidelines would be a very good start.


What Can AI Researchers Learn from Alien Hunters?

THE SETI INSTITUTE’S APPROACH HAS LESSONS FOR RESEARCH ON ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE

Edmon Begoli & Amir Sadovnik

THE EMERGENCE OF artificial general intelligence (systems that can perform any intellectual task a human can) could be the most important event in human history. Yet AGI remains an elusive and controversial concept. We lack a clear definition of what it is, we don’t know how to detect it, and we don’t know how to interact with it if it finally emerges.

What we do know is that today’s approaches to studying AGI are not nearly rigorous enough. Companies like OpenAI are actively striving to create AGI, but they include research on AGI’s social dimensions and safety issues only as their corporate leaders see fit. And academic institutions don’t have the resources for significant efforts.

We need a structured scientific approach to prepare for AGI. A useful model comes from an unexpected field: the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, or SETI. We believe that the SETI Institute’s work provides a rigorous framework for detecting and interpreting signs of intelligent life.

The idea behind SETI goes back to the beginning of the space age. In their 1959 Nature paper, the physicists Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison suggested ways to search for interstellar communication. Given the uncertainty of extraterrestrial civilizations’ existence and sophistication, they theorized about how we should best “listen” for messages from alien societies.

We argue for a similar approach to studying AGI, in all its uncertainties. The last few years have shown a vast leap in AI capabilities. The large language models (LLMs) that power chatbots like ChatGPT and enable them to converse convincingly with humans have renewed the discussion of AGI. One notable 2023 preprint even argued that ChatGPT shows “sparks” of AGI, and today’s most cutting-edge language models are capable of sophisticated reasoning and outperform humans in many evaluations.

While these claims are intriguing, there are reasons to be skeptical. In fact, a large group of scientists have argued that the current set of tools won’t bring us any closer to true AGI. But given the risks associated with AGI, if there is even a small likelihood of it occurring, we must make a serious effort to develop a standard definition of AGI, establish a SETI-like approach to detecting it, and devise ways to safely interact with it if it emerges.

THE CRUCIAL FIRST step is to define what exactly to look for. In SETI’s case, researchers decided to look for certain narrowband signals that would be distinct from other radio signals present in the cosmic background. These signals are considered intentional and only produced by intelligent life. None have been found so far.

In the case of AGI, matters are far more complicated. Today, there is no clear definition of artificial general intelligence. The term is hard to define because it contains other imprecise and controversial terms. Although intelligence has been defined by the Oxford English Dictionary as “the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills,” there is still much debate on which skills are involved and how they can be measured. The term general is also ambiguous. Does an AGI need to be able to do absolutely everything a human can do?

One of the first missions of a “SETI for AGI” project must be to clearly define the terms general and intelligence so the research community can speak about them concretely and consistently. These definitions need to be grounded in disciplines such as computer science, measurement science, neuroscience, psychology, mathematics, engineering, and philosophy.

There’s also the crucial question of whether a true AGI must include consciousness and self-awareness. These terms also have multiple definitions, and the relationships between them and intelligence must be clarified. Although it’s generally thought that consciousness isn’t necessary for intelligence, it’s often intertwined with discussions of AGI because creating a self-aware machine would have many philosophical, societal, and legal implications.

NEXT COMES the task of measurement. In the case of SETI, if a candidate narrowband signal is detected, an expert group will verify that it is indeed from an extraterrestrial source. They’ll use established criteria—for example, looking at the signal type and checking for repetition—and conduct assessments at multiple facilities for additional validation.

How to best measure computer intelligence has been a long-standing question in the field. In a famous 1950 paper, Alan Turing proposed the “imitation game,” more widely known as the Turing Test, which assesses whether human interlocutors can distinguish if they are chatting with a human or a machine. Although the Turing Test was useful in the past, the rise of LLMs has made clear that it isn’t a complete enough test to measure intelligence. As Turing himself noted, the relationship between imitating language and thinking is still an open question.

Future appraisals must be directed at different dimensions of intelligence. Although measures of human intelligence are controversial, IQ tests can provide an initial baseline to assess one dimension. In addition, cognitive tests on topics such as creative problem-solving, rapid learning and adaptation, reasoning, and goal-directed behavior would be required to assess general intelligence.

But it’s important to remember that these cognitive tests were designed for humans and might contain assumptions that might not apply to computers, even those with AGI abilities. For example, depending on how it’s trained, a machine may score very high on an IQ test but remain unable to solve much simpler tasks. In addition, an AI may have new abilities that aren’t measurable by our traditional tests. There’s a clear need to design novel evaluations that can alert us when meaningful progress is made toward AGI.

IF WE DEVELOP AGI, we must be prepared to answer questions such as: Is the new form of intelligence a new form of life? What kinds of rights does it have? What are the potential safety concerns, and what is our approach to containing the AGI entity?

Here, too, SETI provides inspiration. SETI’s postdetection protocols emphasize validation, transparency, and international cooperation, with the goal of maximizing the credibility of the process, minimizing sensationalism, and bringing structure to such a profound event. Likewise, we need internationally recognized AGI protocols to bring transparency to the entire process, apply safety-related best practices, and begin the discussion of ethical, social, and philosophical concerns.

We readily acknowledge that the SETI analogy can go only so far. If AGI emerges, it will be a human-made phenomenon. We will likely gradually engineer AGI and see it slowly emerge, so detection might be a process that takes place over a period of years, if not decades. In contrast, the existence of extraterrestrial life is something that we have no control over, and contact could happen very suddenly.

The consequences of a true AGI are entirely unpredictable. To best prepare, we need a methodical approach to defining, detecting, and interacting with AGI, which could be the most important development in human history.


AI Revolutionizes Industry and Retail: From Production Lines to Personalized Shopping Experiences

  1. Industry and Retail Relationship
  2. AI in Industry
  3. AI in Retail
  4. Summary

AI technology is increasingly being utilized in industry and retail sectors to enhance efficiency, productivity, and customer experiences. In this post, we firstly revisit the relationship between the industry and retail sections, then provide some common AI technologies and applications used in these domains.

Industry and Retail Relationship

The key difference between industry and retail lies in their primary functions and the nature of their operations:

Industry:

  • Industry, often referred to as manufacturing or production, involves the creation, extraction, or processing of raw materials and the transformation of these materials into finished goods or products.
  • Industrial businesses are typically involved in activities like manufacturing, mining, construction, or agriculture.
  • The primary focus of the industry is to produce goods on a large scale, which are then sold to other businesses, wholesalers, or retailers. These goods are often used as inputs for other industries or for further processing.
  • Industries may have complex production processes, rely on machinery and technology, and require substantial capital investment.

Retail:

  • Retail, on the other hand, involves the sale of finished products or goods directly to the end consumers for personal use. Retailers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or wholesalers and the end customers.
  • Retailers can take various forms, including physical stores, e-commerce websites, supermarkets, boutiques, and more.
  • Retailers may carry a wide range of products, including those manufactured by various industries. They focus on providing a convenient and accessible point of purchase for consumers.
  • Retail operations are primarily concerned with merchandising, marketing, customer service, inventory management, and creating a satisfying shopping experience for consumers.

AI in Industry

AI, or artificial intelligence, is revolutionizing industry sectors by powering various applications and technologies that enhance efficiency, productivity, and customer experiences. Here are some common AI technologies and applications used in these domains:

1. Robotics and Automation: AI-driven robots and automation systems are used in manufacturing to perform repetitive, high-precision tasks, such as assembly, welding, and quality control. Machine learning algorithms enable these robots to adapt and improve their performance over time.

2. Predictive Maintenance: AI is used to predict when industrial equipment, such as machinery or vehicles, is likely to fail. This allows companies to schedule maintenance proactively, reducing downtime and maintenance costs.

3. Quality Control: Computer vision and machine learning algorithms are employed for quality control processes. They can quickly identify defects or irregularities in products, reducing the number of faulty items reaching the market.

4. Supply Chain Optimization: AI helps in optimizing the supply chain by predicting demand, managing inventory, and optimizing routes for logistics and transportation.

5. Process Optimization: AI can optimize manufacturing processes by adjusting parameters in real time to increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption.

6. Safety and Compliance: AI-driven systems can monitor and enhance workplace safety, ensuring that industrial facilities comply with regulations and safety standards.


AI in Retail

AI technology is revolutionizing the retail sector too, introducing innovative solutions and transforming the way businesses engage with customers. Here are some key AI technologies and applications used in retail:

1. Personalized Marketing: AI is used to analyze customer data and behaviours to provide personalized product recommendations, targeted marketing campaigns, and customized shopping experiences.

2. Chatbots and Virtual Assistants: Retailers employ AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants to provide customer support, answer queries, and assist with online shopping.

3. Inventory Management: AI can optimize inventory levels and replenishment by analyzing sales data and demand patterns, reducing stockouts and overstock situations.

4. Price Optimization: Retailers use AI to dynamically adjust prices based on various factors, such as demand, competition, and customer behaviour, to maximize revenue and profits.

5. Visual Search and Image Recognition: AI enables visual search in e-commerce, allowing customers to find products by uploading images or using images they find online.

6. Supply Chain and Logistics: AI helps optimize supply chain operations, route planning, and warehouse management, improving efficiency and reducing costs.

7. In-Store Analytics: AI-powered systems can analyze in-store customer behaviour, enabling retailers to improve store layouts, planogram designs, and customer engagement strategies.

8. Fraud Detection: AI is used to detect and prevent fraudulent activities, such as credit card fraud and return fraud, to protect both retailers and customers.

Summary

AI’s potential to transform industry and retail is huge and its future applications are very promising. As AI technologies advance, we can expect increased levels of automation, personalization, and optimization in industry and retail operations.

AI technologies in these sectors often rely on machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), natural language processing (NLP), and computer vision (CV), and now Generative Large Language Models (LLM) to analyze and gain insights from data. These AI applications are continuously evolving and are changing the way businesses in these sectors operate, leading to improved processes and customer experiences.

AI will drive high levels of efficiency, innovation, and customer satisfaction in these sectors, ultimately revolutionizing the way businesses operate and interact with consumers.


The Future of Coding: Will Generative AI Make Programmers Obsolete?

Table of Content

  1. Is coding still worth learning in 2024?
  2. Is AI replacing software engineers?
  3. Impact of AI on software engineering
  4. The problem with AI-generated code
  5. How AI can help software engineers
  6. Does AI really make you code faster?
  7. Can one AI-powered engineer do the work of many?
  8. Future of Software Engineering
  9. Reference
Credits: this post is a notebook of the key points from YouTube Content Creator Programming with Mosh's video with some editorial works. TL,DR,: watch the video.

Is coding still worth learning in 2024?

This can be a common question for a lot of people especially the younger generation of students when they try to choose a career path with some kind of insurance for future incomings.

People are worried that AI is going to replace software engineers, or any engineer related to coding and designs.

As you know, we should trust solid data instead of media and hearsay in the digital area. Social media have been creating this anxious feeling that every job is going to collapse because of AI. Coding has no future.

But I’ve got a different take backed up by real-world numbers as follows.

Note: In this post, “software engineer” represents all groups of coders (data engineer, data analyst, data scientist, machine learning engineer, frontend/backend/full-stack developers, programmers and researchers).

Is AI replacing software engineers?

The short answer is NO.

But there is a lot of fear about AI replacing coders. Headling scream robots taking over jobs and it can be overwhelming. But the truth is:

AI is not going to take you jobs; instead it is the People who can work with AI will have the advantage, and probabley will take your job.

Software engineering is not going away at least not anytime soon in our generation. Here are some data to back this up.

The US Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) is a government agency that tracks job growth across the country on its website. From the data, we see that there is a continued demand for software developers, and computer and information scientists.

They claimed that the requirement for software developers is expected to grow by 26% from 2022 to 2032, while the average across all occupations is only 3%. This is a strong indication that software engineering is here to stay.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-6

In our lives, the research and development conducted by computer and information research scientists turn ideas into technology. As demand for new and better technology grows, demand for computer and information research scientists will grow as well.

There is a similar trend for Computer and Information Research Scientists, which is expected to grow by 23% from 2022 to 2032.

source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm#tab-6

Impact of AI on software engineering

To better understand the impact of AI on software engineering, let’s do a quick revisit of the history of programming.

In the early days of programming, engineers wrote codes in a way that only the computer understood. Then, we create compilers, we can program in a human-readable language like C++ and Jave without worrying about how the code should eventually get converted into zeros and ones, and where it will get stored in the memory.

Here is the fact

Compilers did not replace programmers. They made them more efficient!

Since then we have built so many software applications and totally changed the world.

The problem with AI-generated code

AI will likely do the same as changing the future, we will be able to delegate routine and repetitive coding tasks to AI, so we can focus on complex problem-solving, design and innovation.

This will allow us to build more sophisticated software applications most people can not even imagine today. But even then, just because AI can generate code doesn’t mean we can or we should delegate the entire coding aspect of software development to AI because

AI-Generated Code is Lower-Quality, we still need to review and refine it before using it in the production.

In fact, there is a study to support this: Coding on Copilot: 2023 Data Suggests Downward Pressure on Code Quality. According to this study, they collected 153M lines of code from 2020 to 2023 and found disconcerting trends for maintainability: Code churn will be doubled in 2024.

source: Abstract of the 2023 Data Shows Downward Pressure on
Code Quality

So, yes, we can produce more code with AI. but

More Code != Better Code

Humans should always review and refine AI-generated code for quality and security before deploying it to production. That means all the coding skills that software engineer currently has will continue to stay relevant in the future.

You still need the knowledge of data structure and algorithms programming languages and their tricky parts, tools and frameworks, you still need to have all that knowledge to review and refine the AI-generated code, you will just spend less time typing it into the computer.

So anyone telling you that you can use natural language to build software without understanding anything about coding is out of touch with the reality of software engineering (or he is trying to sell you something, i.e., GPUs).

source: NVIDIA CEO: No Need To Learn Coding, Anybody Can Be A Programmer With Technology

How AI can help software engineers

Of course, you can make a dummy app with AI in minutes, but this is not the same kind of software that runs our banks, transportation, healthcare, security and more. These are the software/systems that really matter, and our life depends on them. We can’t let a code monkey talk to a chatbot in English and get that software built. At least, this will not happen in our lifetime.

In the future, we will probably spend more time designing new features and products with AI instead of writing boilerplate code. We will likely delegate aspects of coding to AI, but this doesn’t mean we don’t need to learn to code.

As a software engineer or any coding practitioner, you will always need to review what AI generates and refine it either by hand or by guiding the AI to improve the code.

Keep in mind that Coding is only one small part of a software engineer’s job, we often spend most of our time talking to people, understanding requirements, writing stories, discussing software/system architecture, etc.

Instead of being worried about AI, I’m more concerned about Human Intelligence!

Does AI really make you code faster?

AI can only boost our programming productivity but not necessarily the overall productivity.

In fact, McKinsey’s report, Unleashing Developer Productivity with Generative AI, found that for highly complex tasks developers saw less than 10% improvement in their speed with generative AI supports.

source: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/unleashing-developer-productivity-with-generative-ai

As you can see, AI helped the most with documentation and code generation to some extent, but when moving to code refactoring, the improvement dropped to 20% and for high-complexity tasks, it was less than 10%.

 Time savings shrank to less than 10 percent on tasks that developers deemed high in complexity due to, for example, their lack of familiarity with a necessary programming framework.

Thus, if anyone tells you that software engineers will be obsolete in 5 years, they are either ignorant or trying to sell you something.

In fact, some studies tell that the role of software engineers (coders) may become more valuable as they will be needed to develop, manage and maintain these AI systems.

They (software engineers) need to understand all the complexity of building software and use AI to boost their productivity.

Can one AI-powered engineer do the work of many?

Now, people are worried that one Senior Engineer can simply use AI to replace many Engineers, eventually, leaving no job opportunities for juniors.

But again this is a fallacy because the time saving you get from AI is not as great as you are promised in reality. Anyone who uses AI to generate code knows that. It takes effort to get the right prompts for usable results, and the code still needs polishing.

Thus, it is not like one engineer will suddenly have so much free time to do the job of many people.

But you may ask, this is now, what about the future? Maybe in a year or two, AI will start to build software like a human.

In theory, yes, AI is advancing and one day it may even reach and surpass human intelligence. But Einstein said:

In Theory, Theory and Practice are the Same.

In Practice, they are NOT.

The reality is that while machines may be able to handle repetitive and routine tasks, human creativity and expertise will still be necessary for developing complex solutions and strategies.

Software engineering will be extremely important over the next several decades. I don’t think it is going away in the future, but I do believe it will change.

Future of Software Engineering

Software powers our world and that will not change anytime soon.

In future, we have to learn how to input the right prompt into our AI tools to get the expected result. This is not an easy skill to develop, it requires problem-solving capability as well as programming knowledge of languages and tools. So, if you’ve already made up your mind and don’t want to invest your time in software engineering or coding. That’s perfectly fine. Follow your passion!

The coding tools will evolve as they always do, but the true coding skill lies in learning and adapting. The future engineer needs today’s coding skills and a good understanding to use AI effectively. The future brings more complexity and demands more knowledge and adaptability from software engineers.

If you like building things with code, and if the idea of shaping the future with technology gets you excited, don’t let negativity and fear of Gen-AIs hold you back.

Reference

Enigma – Mission X Challenge Accomplished with Python

Enigma M3 from 101 computing: https://www.101computing.net/enigma/
GitHub Repo: https://github.com/cuicaihao/Enigma-Mission-X

Short Summary

Inspired by Enigma – Mission X Challenge, this repo is used to save the research and practice efforts in Different Cipher methods.

The primary goals are using Python programming language to achieve targets listed as follows in Jupyter Notebooks:

Example

  • German Navy Ciphertext by Enigma M3: OJSBI BUPKA ECMEE ZH
  • German Message: Ziel hafen von DOVER
  • English Translation: Target port of DOVER
Enigma Mission – X

By running the notebook, it is not difficult to complete the deciphering process with the “keys” to get the original message from the ciphertext by the German Navy.

Notebook Outputs Example

However, it will be difficult to break down the cipher without knowing the keys. That will be the Turing-Welchman Bombe Simulator challenge.

About Enigma Mission X

Mission X is a game for programmers to accomplish the deciphering job required by Dr Alan Turing.

Mission X Letter from Alan Turning

Programmers need to break the secret with limited information as follows.

Example Message from German Navy

END

Technical Review 03: Scale Effects & What happens when LLMs get bigger and bigger

  1. AI Assitant Summary
  2. Introduction
  3. Part One: pre-training phase
    1. Open AI
    2. Deep Mind
  4. Part Two: downstream tasks
    1. Linearity Tasks
    2. Breakthroughs Tasks
    3. U-shaped Tasks
  5. Personal View
  6. Reference
  7. What’s Next?

AI Assitant Summary

This blog discusses the scale of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their impact on performance. LLMs like GPT, LaMDA, and PaLM have billions of parameters, raising questions about the consequences of their continued growth.

The journey of an LLM involves two stages: pre-training and scenario application. Pre-training focuses on optimizing the model using cross-entropy, while scenario application evaluates the model’s performance in specific use cases. Evaluating an LLM’s quality requires considering both stages, rather than relying solely on pre-training indicators.

Increasing training data, model parameters, and training time has been found to enhance performance in the pre-training stage. OpenAI and DeepMind have explored this issue, with OpenAI finding that a combination of more data and parameters, along with fewer training steps, produces the best results. DeepMind considers the amount of training data and model parameters equally important.

The influence of model size on downstream tasks varies. Linear tasks show consistent improvement as the model scales, while breakthrough tasks only benefit from larger models once they reach a critical scale. Tasks involving logical reasoning demonstrate sudden improvement at specific model scales. Some tasks exhibit U-shaped growth, where performance initially declines but then improves with larger models.

Reducing the LLM’s parameters while increasing training data proportionally can decrease the model’s size without sacrificing performance, leading to faster inference speed.

Understanding the impact of model size on both pre-training and downstream tasks is vital for optimizing LLM performance and exploring the potential of these language models.

Introduction

In recent years, we’ve witnessed a surge in the size of Large Language Models (LLMs), with models now boasting over 100 billion parameters becoming the new standard. Think OpenAI’s GPT-3 (175B), Google’s LaMDA (137B), PaLM (540B), and other global heavyweights. China, too, contributes to this landscape with models like Zhiyuan GLM, Huawei’s “Pangu,” Baidu’s “Wenxin,” etc. But here’s the big question: What unfolds as these LLMs continue to grow?

The journey of pre-trained models involves two crucial stages: pre-training and scenario application.

In the pre-training stage, the optimization goal is cross entropy. For autoregressive language models such as GPT, it is to see whether LLM correctly predicts the next word;

However, the real test comes in the scenario application stage, where specific use cases dictate evaluation criteria. Generally, our intuition is that if the LLM has better indicators in the pre-training stage, its ability to solve downstream tasks will naturally be stronger. However, this is not entirely true.

Existing research has proven that the optimization index in the pre-training stage does show a positive correlation with downstream tasks, but it is not completely positive. In other words, it is not enough to only look at the indicators in the pre-training stage to judge whether an LLM model is good enough. Based on this, we will look separately at these two different stages to see what the impact will be as the LLM model increases.

Part One: pre-training phase

First, let’s look at what happens as the model size gradually increases during the pre-training stage. OpenAI specifically studied this issue in “Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models” and proposed the “scaling law” followed by the LLM model.

Source: Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models

As shown in the figure above, this study proves that when we independently increase (1) the amount of training data, (2) model parameter size and (3) extend the model training time (such as from 1 Epoch to 2 Epochs), the Loss of the pre-trained model on the test set will decrease monotonically. In other words, the model’s effectiveness is improving steadily.

Since all three factors are important when we actually do pre-training, we have a decision-making problem on how to allocate computing power:

Question: Assuming that the total computing power budget used to train LLM (such as fixed GPU hours or GPU days) is given. How to allocate computing power?

Should we increase the amount of data and reduce model parameters?

Or should we increase the amount of data and model size at the same time but reduce the number of training steps?

Open AI

As one zero-sum game, the scale of one-factor increases, and the scale of other factors must be reduced to keep the total computing power unchanged, so there are various possible computing power allocation plans.

In the end, OpenAI chose to increase the amount of training data and model parameters at the same time but used an early stopping strategy to reduce the number of training steps. Because it proves that: for the two elements of training data volume and model parameters, if you only increase one of them separately, this is not the best choice. It is better to increase both at the same time according to a certain proportion. Its conclusion is to give priority to increasing the model parameters, and then the amount of training data.

Assuming that the total computing power budget used to train LLM increases by 10 times, then the amount of model parameters should be increased by 5.5 times and the amount of training data should be increased by 1.8 times. At this time, the model gets the best performance.

Deep Mind

A study by DeepMind (Reference: Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models) explored this issue in more depth.

Source: Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models

Its basic conclusions are similar to those of OpenAI. For example, it is indeed necessary to increase the amount of training data and model parameters at the same time, so that the model effect will be better.

Many large models do not consider this when doing pre-training. Many large LLM models were trained just monotonically increasing the model parameters while fixing the amount of training data. This approach is wrong and limits the potential of the LLM model.

However, DeepMind corrects the proportional relationship between the two by OpenAI and believes that the amount of training data and model parameters are equally important.

In other words, assuming that the total computing power budget used to train LLM increases by 10 times, the number of model parameters should be increased by 3.3 times, and the amount of training data should also be increased by 3.3 times to get the best model.

This means that increasing the amount of training data is more important than we previously thought. Based on this understanding, DeepMind chose another configuration in terms of computing power allocation when designing the Chinchilla model: compared with the Gopher model with a data volume of 300B and a model parameter volume of 280B, Chinchilla chose to increase the training data by 4 times, but reduced the model The parameters are reduced to one-fourth that of Gopher, which is about 70B. However, regardless of pre-training indicators or many downstream task indicators, Chinchilla is better than the larger Gopher.

This brings us to the following enlightenment:

We can choose to enlarge the training data and reduce the LLM model parameters in the same proportion to achieve the purpose of greatly reducing the size of the model without reducing the model performance.

Reducing the size of the model has many benefits, such as the inference speed will be much faster when applied. This is undoubtedly a promising development route for LLM.

Part Two: downstream tasks

The above is the impact of the model scale from the pre-training stage. From the perspective of the effect of LLM on solving specific downstream tasks, as the model scale increases, different types of tasks have different performances.

Source: Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark

Specifically, there are the following three types of tasks.

  • (a) Tasks that achieve the highest linearity scores see model performance improve predictably with scale and typically rely on knowledge and simple textual manipulations.
  • (b) Tasks with high breakthroughs do not see model performance improve until the model reaches a critical scale. These tasks generally require sequential steps or logical reasoning. Around 5% of BIG-bench tasks see models achieve sudden score breakthroughs with increasing scale.
  • (c) Tasks that achieve the lowest (negative) linearity scores see model performance degrade with scale.

Linearity Tasks

The first type of task perfectly reflects the scaling law of the LLM model, which means that as the model scale gradually increases, the performance of the tasks gets better and better, as shown in (a) above.

Such tasks usually have the following common characteristics: they are often knowledge-intensive tasks. That is to say, if the LLM model contains more knowledge, the performance of such tasks will be better.

Many studies have proven that the larger the LLM model, the higher the learning efficiency. For the same amount of training data, the larger the model, the better the performance. This shows that even when faced with the same batch of training data, a larger LLM model is relatively more efficient in getting more knowledge than small ones.

What’s more, under normal circumstances, when increasing the LLM model parameters, the amount of training data will often increase simultaneously, which means that large models can learn more knowledge points from more data. These studies can explain the above figure, why as the model size increases, these knowledge-intensive tasks become better and better.

Most traditional NLP tasks are actually knowledge-intensive tasks, and many tasks have achieved great improvement in the past few years, even surpassing human performance. Obviously, this is most likely caused by the increase in the scale of the LLM model, rather than due to a specific technical improvement.

Breakthroughs Tasks

The second type of task demonstrates that LLM has some kind of “Emergent Ability”, as shown in (b) above. The so-called “emergent ability” means that when the model parameter scale fails to reach a certain threshold, the model basically does not have any ability to solve such tasks, which reflects that its performance is equivalent to randomly selecting answers. However, when the model scale spans Once the threshold is exceeded, the LLM model’s effect on such tasks will experience a sudden performance increase.

In other words, model size is the key to unlocking (unlocking) new capabilities of LLM. As the model size becomes larger and larger, more and more new capabilities of LLM will be gradually unlocked.

This is a very magical phenomenon because it means the following possibilities that make people optimistic about the future. Many tasks that cannot be solved well by LLM at present can be solved in future if we continue to make the model larger. Because LLM has “emergent capabilities” to suddenly unlock those limits one day. The growth of the LLM model will bring us unexpected and wonderful gifts.

The article “Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and Extrapolating the Capabilities of Language Models” points out that tasks that embody “emergent capabilities” also have some common features: these tasks generally consist of multiple steps, and to solve these tasks, it is often necessary to first Multiple intermediate steps are solved, and logical reasoning skills play an important role in the final solution of such tasks.

Chain of Thought (CoT) Prompting is a typical technology that enhances the reasoning ability of LLM, which can greatly improve the effect of such tasks. I will discuss the CoT technology in the following blogs.

Here the most important question is, why does LLM have this “emergent ability” phenomenon? The article “Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models” shares several possible explanations:

Source: Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models

One possible explanation is that the evaluation indicators of some tasks are not smooth enough. For example, some metrics for generation tasks require that the string output by the model must completely match the standard answer to be considered correct otherwise it will be scored zero.

Thus, even as the model gradually becomes better and outputs more correct character fragments, because it is not completely correct, 0 points will be given for any small errors. Only when the model is large enough, the output Scores are scored when all the output segments are correct. In other words, because the indicator is not smooth enough, it cannot reflect the reality that LLM is actually gradually improving its performance on the task. It seems to be an external manifestation of “emergent ability”.

Another possible explanation is that some tasks are composed of several intermediate steps. As the size of the model increases, the ability to solve each step gradually increases, but as long as one intermediate step is wrong, the final answer will be wrong. This will also lead to this superficial “emergent ability” phenomenon.

Of course, the above explanations are still conjectures at present. As for why LLM has this phenomenon, further and in-depth research is needed.

U-shaped Tasks

Source: Inverse scaling can become U-shaped

There are also a small number of tasks. As the model size increases, the task effect curve shows U-shaped characteristics: as the model size gradually increases, the task effect gradually becomes worse, but when the model size further increases, the effect starts to get better and better. Figure above shows a U-shaped growth trend where the indicator trend of the pink PaLM model on the two tasks.

Why do these tasks appear so special? The article “Inverse Scaling Can Become U-shaped” gives an explanation:

These tasks actually contain two different types of subtasks, one is the real task, and the other is the “interference task ( distractor task)”.

  • When the model size is small, it cannot identify any sub-task, so the performance of the model is similar to randomly selecting answers.
  • When the model grows to a medium size, it mainly tries to solve the interference task, so it has a negative impact on the real task performance. This is reflected in the decline of the real task effect.
  • When the model size is further increased, LLM can ignore the interfering task and perform the real task, which is reflected in the effect starting to grow.

For those tasks whose performance has been declining as the model size increases, if Chain of Thought (CoT) Prompting is used, the performance of some tasks will be converted to follow the Scaling Law. That is, the larger the model size, the better the performance, while other tasks will be converted to a U-shaped growth curve.

This actually shows that this type of task should be a reasoning-type task, so the task performance will change qualitatively after adding CoT.

Personal View

Increasing the size of the LLM model may not seem technically significant, but it is actually very important to build better LLMs. In my opinion, the advancements from Bert to GPT 3 and ChatGPT are likely attributed to the growth of the LLM model size rather than a specific technology. I believe a lot of people want to explore the scale ceiling of the LLM model if possible.

The key to achieving AGI may lie in having large and diverse data, large-scale models, and rigorous training processes. Developing such large LLM models requires high engineering skills from the technical team, which means there is technical content involved.

Increasing the scale of the LLM model has research significance. There are two main reasons why it is valuable.

  • Firstly, as the model size grows, the performance of various tasks improves, especially for knowledge-intensive tasks. Additionally, for reasoning and difficult tasks, the effect of adding CoT Prompting follows a scaling law. Therefore, it is important to determine to what extent the scale effect of LLM can solve these tasks.
  • Secondly, the “emergent ability” of LLM suggests that increasing the model size may unlock new capabilities that we did not expect. This raises the question of what these capabilities could be.

Considering these factors, it is necessary to continue increasing the model size to explore the limits of its ability to solve different tasks.

Talk is cheap, and in reality, very few AI/ML practitioners have the opportunity or ability to build larger models due to high financial requirements, investment willingness, engineering capabilities, and technical enthusiasm from research institutions. There are probably no more than 10 institutions that can do this on Earth. However, in the future, there may be a possibility of joint efforts between capable institutions to build a Super-Large model:

All (Resources) for One (Model) and One (Model) for All (People).

Modified from Alexandre Dumas, The Three Musketeers

Reference

  1. OpenAI 2020: Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models (https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361)
  2. DeepMind 2022: Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models (https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556)
  3. BIG-bench Project Team: 2023: Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models (https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04615)
  4. Google 2023: Inverse scaling can become U-shaped (https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02011)

What’s Next?

Technical Review 04: Human-Computer Interface: From In Context Learning to Instruct Understanding (ChatGPT)

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